Typical operating window
January–MarchWestern disturbances bring the main accumulation from December through March.Verified planning context
Snow, weather and avalanche context
Historical patterns help you compare trips. They do not predict your week or replace the operator's daily decisions.
Strongest comparable snow evidence
1,097 mm SWE median · 903–1,195 mm interquartile rangeManali ERA5-Land grid cellTier C · modelled estimate · low confidenceSnow character
continentalCold high-elevation powder can persist, while sun, wind, and lower-elevation warming produce rapid surface changes.Public avalanche information
DGRE district avalanche warning bulletinCheck Kullu district, altitude, issue time, and validity. The operator still makes a site-specific assessment.Weather and flight context
Intermittent western disturbances alternate with dry, clear Himalayan weather.
- Storm cloud and icing
- High-altitude performance limits
- Strong sun and ridge wind
Meteorological reference area
Manali and Himachal Pradesh reference area
- Includes
- Manali-linked Himachal Pradesh program areas.
- Excludes
- Gulmarg, Jammu and Kashmir, and other Himalayan regions.
- Elevation
- No verified operator-terrain elevation band is public. Each evidence value retains its site elevation.
Evidence pack
Measurements, claims and gaps stay separate.
Tier CModelled snowfall water equivalent1,097 mm SWE median · 903–1,195 mm interquartile range
- Site
- Manali ERA5-Land grid cell · 32.2000, 77.2000 · 4.9 km from Manali reference point
- Period
- Calendar years 1991–2020
- Completeness
- 360 monthly means; all 30 calendar years contain 12 values.
- Method
- ERA5-Land monthly mean daily snowfall accumulation was multiplied by calendar days and 1,000, then summed by calendar year.
- Limitation
- This reference area supports evidence discovery and comparison. It is not an operating-area or tenure boundary. The sampled gateway cell can differ substantially from ski elevations. This unadjusted 0.1° reanalysis grid cell is not an observation, snow depth, or terrain-wide total. Grid elevation and wind redistribution can cause substantial local bias.
- ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to presentCopernicus Climate Change Service · accessed 2026-08-26
Monthly evidence
Each cell keeps its measurement type and unit. Reanalysis water equivalent is not snow depth. Text-only cells preserve a representative data gap.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199.2 mm SWE | 257.1 mm SWE | 225.1 mm SWE | 107 mm SWE | 28.5 mm SWE | 8.8 mm SWE | 1.1 mm SWE | 1.4 mm SWE | 7.5 mm SWE | 17.9 mm SWE | 45.9 mm SWE | 97.7 mm SWE |
Commercial operator assessment
Operator assessment process not independently verifiedThe operator must assess current snow, avalanche terrain, weather, aircraft limits, and rescue options. No private operational plan is inferred.
Sources and evidence notes
- WMO Climatological NormalsWorld Meteorological Organization · accessed 2026-08-25
- ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to presentCopernicus Climate Change Service · accessed 2026-08-25
- Avalanche Warning Bulletin archiveDefence Geoinformatics Research Establishment, Government of India · accessed 2026-08-25
- Published operator and trip inventoryHeliski International editorial team · accessed 2026-08-25
- ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to presentCopernicus Climate Change Service · accessed 2026-08-26