Typical operating window
January–MarchTien Shan winter snowfall normally builds usable coverage from December, with colder midwinter conditions following.Verified planning context
Snow, weather and avalanche context
Historical patterns help you compare trips. They do not predict your week or replace the operator's daily decisions.
Strongest comparable snow evidence
310 mm SWE median · 279–346 mm interquartile rangeKarakol ERA5-Land grid cellTier C · modelled estimate · low confidenceSnow character
continentalCold dry snow can persist, while wind loading and long-lived weak layers remain important continental-snowpack concerns.Public avalanche information
KyrgyzHydromet weather and hazard informationNo verified public regional avalanche bulletin was identified for the commercial terrain.Weather and flight context
Continental cold combines with localized orographic snowfall and sparse high-elevation observations.
- Remote observation gaps
- Extreme cold
- Mountain wind and low contrast
Meteorological reference area
Karakol and eastern Kyrgyz Tien Shan
- Includes
- Karakol-linked eastern Kyrgyz Tien Shan evidence.
- Excludes
- Bishkek-linked Kyrgyz regions and Kazakhstan.
- Elevation
- No verified operator-terrain elevation band is public. Each evidence value retains its site elevation.
Evidence pack
Measurements, claims and gaps stay separate.
Tier CModelled snowfall water equivalent310 mm SWE median · 279–346 mm interquartile range
- Site
- Karakol ERA5-Land grid cell · 42.5000, 78.4000 · 2.5 km from Karakol reference point
- Period
- Calendar years 1991–2020
- Completeness
- 360 monthly means; all 30 calendar years contain 12 values.
- Method
- ERA5-Land monthly mean daily snowfall accumulation was multiplied by calendar days and 1,000, then summed by calendar year.
- Limitation
- This reference area supports evidence discovery and comparison. It is not an operating-area or tenure boundary. The sampled gateway cell can differ substantially from ski elevations. This unadjusted 0.1° reanalysis grid cell is not an observation, snow depth, or terrain-wide total. Grid elevation and wind redistribution can cause substantial local bias.
- ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to presentCopernicus Climate Change Service · accessed 2026-08-26
Monthly evidence
Each cell keeps its measurement type and unit. Reanalysis water equivalent is not snow depth. Text-only cells preserve a representative data gap.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.9 mm SWE | 30 mm SWE | 35.3 mm SWE | 35 mm SWE | 24.5 mm SWE | 6.4 mm SWE | 0.5 mm SWE | 1.7 mm SWE | 15.8 mm SWE | 36.8 mm SWE | 38 mm SWE | 37.7 mm SWE |
Commercial operator assessment
Operator assessment process not independently verifiedThe operator must assess current snow, avalanche terrain, weather, aircraft limits, and rescue options. No private operational plan is inferred.
Sources and evidence notes
- WMO Climatological NormalsWorld Meteorological Organization · accessed 2026-08-25
- ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to presentCopernicus Climate Change Service · accessed 2026-08-25
- Weather and hazard informationKyrgyzHydromet · accessed 2026-08-25
- Published operator and trip inventoryHeliski International editorial team · accessed 2026-08-25
- ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to presentCopernicus Climate Change Service · accessed 2026-08-26